American voters will cast their ballots on 5 November to elect their next president. This yearâs close race, featuring Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, could extend the time needed for media outlets to confidently project a winner.
Historically, election results are sometimes known by the early hours after polls close, but close margins and potential recounts may delay announcements. Key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia could play decisive roles, especially given Pennsylvania’s recount rules, which trigger if the margin is less than 0.5%.
Anticipated Timeline for 2024 Results
- Early Closings and Projections:
- Georgia: Polls close at 19:00 EST (00:00 GMT), with early and mail-in ballots counted first. An estimated 75% of votes should be counted within the first two hours.
- North Carolina: Polls close at 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT), and results are expected before the end of the night, though recent hurricane impacts may introduce complications.
- Longer Wait Times:
- Pennsylvania: Voting ends at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT), but counting doesnât start until election morning, which could mean a delay of at least 24 hours for a substantial count.
- Michigan: Polls close at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT), with results anticipated by the end of Wednesday, as officials are allowed to begin counting a week prior but must hold results until polls close.
- Wisconsin: Similar to Pennsylvania, smaller counties may report quickly after 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT), but larger areas may delay the full count until later on Wednesday.
- Extended Delays Due to Mail-In and Absentee Ballots:
- Arizona: Initial results expected by 22:00 EST (03:00 GMT), but Maricopa County warns that counting of postal ballots dropped off on election day may take up to 13 days.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots are counted if postmarked by election day and received by 9 November, so results could trickle in over several days.
Potential Delays and Legalities
Pre-election legal challengesâover 100 lawsuits regarding voter eligibility and registration processesâcould also impact counting timelines. Additionally, election officials are prepared for potential disorder at polling sites, though streamlined procedures and reduced mail-in ballots since the pandemic are expected to speed up vote counting in certain states, such as Michigan.
In recent years, the U.S. has seen both rapid and delayed election results. For instance, Joe Bidenâs win in 2020 wasnât confirmed until Saturday, four days post-election, whereas Donald Trumpâs 2016 victory was projected the morning after election day. The 2000 Bush-Gore election remains the longest delay in recent history, with results finalized only after the U.S. Supreme Court intervened on 12 December.
With key states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia likely to play pivotal roles in determining the 2024 outcome, a clear picture of the winner could take longer, especially if recounts or legal challenges arise.