Astronomers monitoring asteroid activity using the James Webb Space Telescope have updated the risk assessment of Asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon—raising the probability slightly to 4.3%.
NASA recently reported that enhanced observations with the Webb telescope have significantly refined the expected path of the asteroid. The updated data offers a 20% improvement in pinpointing the asteroid’s location on December 22, 2032. Although there’s now a 4.3% chance of a lunar impact, experts assure it would not affect the Moon’s orbit or pose a threat to Earth.
When 2024 YR4 was first discovered, early models estimated a 1-in-100 chance of it striking Earth in 2032. However, continuous tracking and improved trajectory analysis have ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact, reducing that risk to nearly zero.
Despite this, NASA remains cautious about a potential Moon impact. Back in April, scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California gave it a 3.8% probability. That figure has now risen slightly to 4.3%, based on updated insights from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
Observations were led by Dr. Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, using Webb’s advanced Near-Infrared Camera in May. Currently, the asteroid is beyond the reach of ground-based and space telescopes, but it is expected to be visible again in 2028. That future observation window will allow astronomers to better evaluate its flight path and potential risks.
Experts confirm that even in the unlikely event of a collision with the Moon, there would be no consequences for life on Earth or the Moon’s stable orbit.